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Kathleen Cleeren

KU Leuven

Shrinkflation – The Impact of Package Downsizing on SKU Sales

Date: Friday, November 7, 2025
Time: 10:30 am-12:00 pm EST
Location: Bronfman building, room 046

All are cordially invited to attend.

Abstract:

While shrinkflation – the strategy of downsizing product packages to covertly increase prices – is a common practice in the grocery sector nowadays, research on the impact on sales remains scarce. Using scanner data covering 388 shrinkflation cases across 4,762 stores and 62 product categories, we show that shrinkflation leads to increased unit, volume, and value sales. However, its effectiveness varies depending on the way it is implemented, the characteristics of the brand, and the nature of the product category. The size of the volume reduction emerges as the most important driver of sales effectiveness, with smaller reductions leading to stronger revenue increases. In addition, shrinkflation performs particularly well when implemented by national brands with broader size assortments and in categories that are more expensive and/or have previously exposed consumers to similar tactics. Shrinkflation hence offers brands an effective tool to protect profit margins when prices are under pressure.