BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//132.216.98.100//NONSGML kigkonsult.se iCalcreator 2.20.4//
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:20260606T030231EDT-5347Exkcje@132.216.98.100
DTSTAMP:20260606T070231Z
DESCRIPTION:'The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public D
 atabase Built Using Private Sector Data'\n\nMichael Stepner (University of
  Toronto) with Raj Chetty\, John N. Friedman\, Nathaniel Hendren\, and the
  Opportunity Insights Team\n\nSeptember 23\, 2022\, 3:30 to 5:00 PM\n	Leaco
 ck 429\n\nHost: Erin Strumpf\n	Field: Health\n\nAbstract: \n	We build a publ
 icly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level 
 in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report weekl
 y statistics on consumer spending\, business revenues\, job postings\, and
  employment rates disaggregated by county\, sector\, and income group. Usi
 ng the public available data\, we study how COVID-19 affected the economy 
 by analyzing heterogeneity in its impacts across subgroups. We first show 
 that high-income individuals reduced spending sharply in March 2020\, part
 icularly in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in 
 spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent\, de
 nse areas. Those businesses laid off many of their employees\, leading to w
 idespread job losses especially among low-wage workers in such areas. High
 -wage workers experienced a “V-shaped” recession that lasted a few weeks\,
  whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger\, more persistent job lo
 sses. Even though consumer spending and job postings had recovered fully b
 y December 2021\, employment rates in low-wage jobs remained lower in area
 s that were initially hard hit\, indicating that the job losses due to the
  demand shock led to a persistent reduction in labor supply. Building on t
 his diagnostic analysis\, we evaluate the impacts of fiscal stimulus polic
 ies designed to stem the downward spiral in economic activity. Using an ev
 ent-study design\, we show that cash stimulus payments led to sharp increa
 ses in spending early in the pandemic\, but much smaller responses later i
 n the pandemic\, especially for high-income households. Real-time estimate
 s of marginal propensities to consume provided better forecasts of the imp
 acts of subsequent rounds of stimulus payments than historical estimates. 
 Perhaps because of the substantial expansion in government support\, consu
 mer spending remained high even in low-income areas where many workers los
 t their jobs. Overall\, our findings suggest that fiscal policies can stem
  secondary declines in consumer spending and job losses\, but do not have 
 the capacity to restore full employment when the initial shock to consumer
  spending arises from health concerns. Furthermore\, even after health con
 cerns have abated\, changes in labor supply among those who lost their job
 s may lead to persistent reductions in employment. More broadly\, our anal
 ysis demonstrates how public statistics constructed from private sector da
 ta can support many research and real-time policy analyses\, providing a n
 ew tool for empirical macroeconomics.\n
DTSTART:20220923T193000Z
DTEND:20220923T210000Z
LOCATION:Room 429\, Leacock Building\, CA\, QC\, Montreal\, H3A 2T7\, 855 r
 ue Sherbrooke Ouest
SUMMARY:Michael Stepner (University of Toronto)\, 'The Economic Impacts of 
 COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector D
 ata'
URL:/economics/channels/event/michael-stepner-universi
 ty-toronto-economic-impacts-covid-19-evidence-new-public-database-built-34
 0589
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR