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DESCRIPTION:\n	Abstract:\n\n\nThe under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a key 
 barometer of the health of a nation. Unfortunately\, many people living in
  low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration sy
 stems. This makes estimation of the U5MR\, particularly at the subnational
  level\, difficult. In this talk\, I will describe models that have been d
 eveloped to produce the official United Nations (UN) subnational U5MR esti
 mates in 22 countries. Estimation is based on household surveys\, which us
 e stratified\, two-stage cluster sampling. I will describe a range of area
 - and unit-level models and describe the rationale for the modeling we car
 ry out. Data sparsity in time and space is a key challenge\, and smoothing
  models are vital. I will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of disc
 rete and continuous spatial models\, in the context of estimation at the s
 cale at which health interventions are made. Other issues that will be tou
 ched upon include: design-based versus model-based inference\; adjustments
  for HIV epidemics\; the inclusion of so-called indirect (summary birth hi
 story) data\; reproducibility through software availability\; benchmarking
 \; how to deal with incomplete geographical data\; and working with the UN
  to produce estimates.\n\n\n	Speaker\n\n\nDr Jon Wakefield received his bac
 helors and doctoral degrees from the University of Nottingham. He held fac
 ulty positions in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Notti
 ngham (1989-1990)\, the Department of Mathematics at Imperial College\, Lo
 ndon (1990-1996)\, and the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health\, 
 also at Imperial College (1996-1999). He was a member of the Small Area He
 alth Statistics Unit (SAHSU) at the Department of Epidemiology and Public 
 Health at Imperial College. In 1999\, he left the latter\, to join the fac
 ulty of the Departments of Statistics and Biostatistics at the University 
 of Washington.\n\nDr Wakefield has conducted research on: population pharm
 acokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling\, ecological inference\, disease m
 apping\, epidemiological study design\, cluster detection\, genetic epidem
 iology\, small area estimation and space-time modeling of infectious disea
 se data. He spent two sabbaticals at the International Agency for Research
  on Cancer (IARC) in Lyon\, France. He is an affiliate member in the Vacci
 ne and Infectious Division at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center\,
  an Affiliate with the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology (CSDE)
  and a Research Affiliate with the Center for Statistics and the Social Sc
 iences (CSSS). For the past 10 years\, Dr Wakefield been working on method
 s for modeling health and demographic outcomes in a low and medium incomes
  (LMIC) setting\, and in particular on small-area estimation. Since 2016\,
  Dr Wakefield has been collaborating with the United Nations (UN) Inter-ag
 ency group for Child Mortality Estimation (IGME) on methods for subnationa
 l estimation of child mortality. Since October\, 2018\, he has been on the
  Technical Advisory Group (TAG) for IGME. He is also a member of the UN TA
 Gs for maternal mortality and stillbirths estimation. The team he leads ha
 s just produced the first UN subnational estimates of under-5 mortality in
  22 countries.\n\nIn 2013\, “Bayesian and Frequentist Regression Methods” 
 was published by Springer. He edited the book “Spatial Epidemiology\, whic
 h was published by Oxford University Press in 2000. Dr Wakefield has taugh
 t 16 different graduate classes at the University of Washington\, and has 
 taught short courses on Bayesian Statistics\, Statistical Genetics\, Spati
 al Methods\, Small Area Estimation and Age-Period-Cohort modeling in Austr
 alia\, France\, Mexico\, Spain\, Switzerland\, the UK\, and various locati
 ons in the US\, including in Seattle as part of the Summer Institutes. He 
 has also taught in UN child mortality estimation workshops in Quito\, Joha
 nnesburg and Blantyre. He has advised 21 PhD students to completion. Dr Wa
 kefield has previously been an Associate Editor for Statistical Science\, 
 Biometrics\, Journal of the American Statistical Association\, Genetics\, 
 Journal of the Royal Statistical Society\, Series C and Biostatistics and 
 a moderator for arXiv. Dr Wakefield has served on two National Academies o
 f Science panels: “Cancer Risk close to Nuclear Facilities”\, and “Methods
  for Integrating Multiple Data Sources to Improve Crop Estimates”. He has 
 received the Guy medal in Bronze from the Royal Statistical Society\, is a
  Fellow of the American Statistical Association and is a former chair of t
 he Department of Statistics at the University of Washington.\n\nZoom Link
 \n\nMeeting ID: 939 8331 3215\n\nPasscode: 096952\n\n \n
DTSTART:20210129T203000Z
DTEND:20210129T213000Z
SUMMARY:Jon Wakefield (University of Washington)
URL:/mathstat/channels/event/jon-wakefield-university-
 washington-328069
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