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DTSTAMP:20250509T045122Z
DESCRIPTION: \n\nStudent Seminar Series\n\nDepartment of Atmospheric & Ocea
 nic Sciences\n\npresents\n\na talk by\n\nRachel Kim\n	MSc student\n\nAssess
 ing the predictability of Arctic minimum sea ice extent using observations
 : June solar radiation and late winter coastal divergence\n\nDramatic loss
  in Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) during the observation period has led to a
 n increased interest in Arctic sea ice forecasting. Despite the climatolog
 ical decreasing trend\, minimum SIE has great interannual variability. Due
  to our limited understanding of sea ice dynamics and cost constraints\, c
 limate models lack the forecasting skill for Arctic SIE especially in larg
 e anomalous years. The project looks at two parameters with predictability
  for Arctic minimum SIE but with different lead-times: June reflected sola
 r radiation (RSR) and late winter coastal divergence. June RSR reflects va
 rying albedo conditions such as open water areas with melt onset. The posi
 tive albedo feedback mechanism leads to amplified melt of negative albedo 
 anomalies by the end of melt season. Late winter coastal divergence forms 
 thinner sea ice that is most likely to melt out by end of the following me
 lt season. Consequently\, the integrated area of late winter coastal diver
 gence until spring gives predictability for September minimum SIE.\n	 \n\nR
 esults show that as a predictor\, June RSR is analogous to June SIE\, whic
 h reflects both thermodynamic and dynamic drivers of sea ice melt. Contrar
 ily\, wind-driven late winter coastal divergence is a dynamic mechanism th
 at preconditions sea ice for melt. To make a parallel comparison with June
  RSR\, we are interested in combining the predictability of winter dynamic
  preconditioning with spring thermodynamic effects like the Bering Strait 
 ocean heat transport. The combined predictability increases the lead-time 
 by one month than that of June RSR. The research contributes to better ide
 ntifying the mechanisms that drive sea ice melt and increasing the lead-ti
 me for Arctic SIE forecasting.\n\nWednesday Mar 11/ 2.30 PM/ Room 934 Burn
 side Hall\n\n \n
DTSTART:20200311T183000Z
DTEND:20200311T193000Z
LOCATION:Room 934\, Burnside Hall\, CA\, QC\, Montreal\, H3A 0B9\, 805 rue 
 Sherbrooke Ouest
SUMMARY:Assessing the predictability of Arctic minimum sea ice extent using
  observations: June solar radiation and late winter coastal divergence 
URL:/meteo/channels/event/assessing-predictability-arc
 tic-minimum-sea-ice-extent-using-observations-june-solar-radiation-and-320
 970
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